Let the political games begin.
With Justin Trudeau’s decision to step down, the unofficial race to replace him is on.
By convention in Canada’s parliamentary system of democracy, whoever leads the party that holds the confidence of the House of Commons becomes prime minister.
So the stakes couldn’t be higher.
Polls show the Liberals far behind the Conservatives at the moment. Although a federal election is not scheduled in law until the fall of 2025, a vote of non-confidence whenever the minority Parliament resumes could trigger one immediately.
Still, senior Conservatives know the power of the Liberal political brand in Canada, and a new leader could motivate Liberal voters in a way Trudeau no longer could, and give them a way to snub Pierre Poilievre.
Already, Poilievre is rolling out the nicknames to frame would-be opponents like “carbon tax Carney.”
Here, in alphabetical order, are the top likely contenders for the job of Liberal leader.
Anita Anand, 57. MP for Oakville. Born and raised in Nova Scotia, the former law professor was first elected in 2019. As minister of procurement during the COVID-19 pandemic, she led Canada’s scramble for medical equipment and vaccines during the global race. Anand (whose name rhymes with almond) became defence minister after the 2021 election after predecessor Harjit Sajjan fumbled sexual misconduct allegations and the Canadian evacuation from Afghanistan. In 2023, Anand was shifted into Treasury Board, the central government agency that sends out the cheques, and a job that took her and her leadership ambitions out of the limelight.
Mark Carney, 59. Born in the Northwest Territories. Chairman of Brookfield Asset Management and special UN envoy on climate action and finance, Carney is a Harvard- and Oxford-educated economist and former central banker for Canada and the United Kingdom. Early gigs included working for Goldman Sachs and the Canadian finance department. Now affiliated with Canada 2020, a think tank closely aligned with Liberal politics, Carney declared allegiance to the Liberal party of Canada in 2021, but chose not to run in any of several safe Liberal seats he was encouraged to contest. Carney is believed to want the top job, and giving up his blue-chip salary to become a backbench MP was never on his bingo card.
François-Philippe Champagne, 54. A former corporate lawyer, the MP for Shawinigan speaks fluent English, French and Italian, and his nicknames — Frankie Bubbles and Energizer Bunny — speak to his reputation as an energetic pitchman in a range of cabinet jobs: international trade, infrastructure, foreign affairs and now industry. He led Ottawa’s efforts to draw international investment into building an electric vehicle manufacturing supply chain in Canada. One of three Trudeau officials charged with leading the latest Canada-U.S. charm offensive ahead of the U.S. election, Champagne is also a skilled retail politician, enthusiastically shaking hands and kissing babies, but it’s unclear if he has a political organization to galvanize.
Christy Clark, 59. Senior adviser at the law firm of Bennett Jones, Clark served as B.C. Liberal premier from 2011 to 2017. Clark called openly for Trudeau to step down after the Toronto—St. Paul’s byelection loss, saying she wanted to see the return of the Liberal party she used to work and vote for. National youth campaign director for Jean Chrétien in 1993 and later a staffer for senior cabinet minister Doug Young, Clark returned to B.C. in 1996, where she was elected and sat first in opposition under B.C. Liberal leader Gordon Campbell. She served in his government as deputy premier. Clark left politics in 2005, but returned to replace Campbell in 2011, and won a come-from-behind victory in the 2013 provincial election. Under her, the party narrowly won the 2017 election, with one seat shy of a majority, but did not hold onto power after the NDP and Greens struck a deal to govern.
Sean Fraser, 40. Fraser is a bagpipe-skirling Cape Bretoner from Antigonish, a lawyer, member of the tight-knit Saint-FX alumni, and father of two. Fraser quit Trudeau’s cabinet mid-December the day Chrystia Freeland did too to go spend time with his family in Nova Scotia. But he should not be ruled out. Fraser learned French since arriving in Ottawa. Trudeau called on Fraser’s formidable communication skills and moved him from the immigration portfolio into the hot seat of housing as Liberal polling numbers began to go into free fall. Conservatives see that as his political pain point: he led when numbers of international students and temporary foreign workers soared way beyond the housing and rental supply in Canada.
Chrystia Freeland, 56. Trudeau’s erstwhile minister of everything who quit suddenly on Dec. 17, Freeland led Canada’s side in the 2016-2018 NAFTA renegotiation, deftly handling Donald Trump’s tantrums and trade advisers. She became Canada’s first female finance minister when Trudeau tapped her to replace Bill Morneau and bestowed on her the title of deputy prime minister. A former journalist and author, the Alberta native is the daughter of Ukrainian immigrant parents and was long ago declared persona non grata by Russia for her opposition to its authoritarian regime. Fluent in Ukrainian, she was a key figure in Canada’s response to the war in Ukraine. But her global Rolodex doesn’t translate to an ease in retail domestic politics. Freeland is not a caucus favourite, and — like many of her cabinet peers — may struggle to differentiate herself from Trudeau’s record. But she gained a lot of new supporters when she quit on a point of principle, throwing flames Trudeau’s way.
Mélanie Joly, 45. Foreign affairs minister since 2021, Joly has led Canada’s response to the war in Ukraine, and to the Israel-Hamas war in the Middle East. A savvy political organizer, and former candidate for the Montreal mayoralty, Joly joined Trudeau’s team and won a federal seat in 2015. Though she stumbled as a rookie Heritage minister, Joly proved a hard worker and made her way back into the prime minister’s circle of trust and up the cabinet ladder. Her job has kept her on the road a lot, but Joly still has built up political contacts beyond Quebec in a range of diaspora voting communities.
Dominic LeBlanc, 57. LeBlanc was Trudeau’s fixer-in-chief through the intergovernmental travails of the pandemic and health-care negotiations, the toxic reign of former governor general Julie Payette, and now foreign interference. The New Brunswick MP is a partisan animal whose been targeted for favouring relatives and connections, but has an ability to use humour to defuse nasty attacks from rivals, or from unfriendly premiers. Son of Romeo LeBlanc, a former Pierre Trudeau cabinet minister who became governor general, LeBlanc grew up in Ottawa, once babysat Trudeau, but was not a childhood friend per se. He, too, harboured leadership ambitions in 2013, but bowed out when Trudeau ran. A cancer survivor, LeBlanc is not seen as a details person, but he was a trusted confidante among the few who could lighten Trudeau’s mood in a flash.
Wild cards, in alphabetical order
Frank Baylis, 62. A businessman and executive chairman of Baylis Medical Technologies, Baylis was a one-term Liberal MP for Pierrefonds-Dollard. He ran under Trudeau’s banner in 2015, but did not run again in 2019, and told the CBC he was considering requests by supporters to throw his name in any race to replace Trudeau but declined to confirm that to the Star.
Andrew Furey, 49. Liberal premier Furey heads the government in Newfoundland and Labrador. An early ally of Trudeau’s, he ran party efforts in his province to get Trudeau elected leader, and prime minister in 2015 and 2019. Son of George Furey, a former Liberal organizer and Senate speaker whom Chrétien named to the red chamber, Furey is an orthopedic surgeon and founder of Team Broken Earth charity, which delivered surgical services to post-earthquake Haiti and now to other needy countries. Tensions arose between him and the prime minister over Trudeau’s carbon price plan, which hit the provincial economy and Furey’s political fortunes hard. He recently renegotiated a hydro deal with Quebec that many doubted possible.
Ahmed Hussen, 48. Born in Mogadishu, Hussen arrived in Canada as a young refugee, became a lawyer and head of the Canadian Somali Congress. Trudeau named Hussen to the immigration portfolio in 2015. Later as families minister, he struck most of the federal-provincial $10-a-day child-care deals. As housing minister, he was put in place to develop housing and homelessness strategies. But when it became the toughest political file, Trudeau shifted Hussen to the lower-profile job of international development where he leads Ottawa’s attempts to get aid into Gaza. Hussen is an ambitious and capable political organizer, but privately said he wouldn’t run for Trudeau’s job. That was before it was clear the field is wide open.
Jane Philpott, 64. Physician, Queen’s University health sciences dean and former Trudeau minister for health, Indigenous services and briefly, Treasury Board, Philpott was ousted as a Liberal alongside Wilson-Raybould. She lost when she vied for her old seat as an Independent. She has called around to Liberals to seek organizers for a potential bid, sources say.
Jody Wilson-Raybould, 53. A former regional chief of the B.C. Assembly of First Nations, Wilson-Raybould was Canada’s first Indigenous justice minister. She quit Trudeau’s cabinet in 2019, charging she was shuffled out of the justice and attorney general’s job because she refused to strike a plea deal with Quebec corporate giant SNC-Lavalin. She and her only public supporter in caucus Jane Philpott were kicked out of Liberal caucus. Wilson-Raybould ran and won as an Independent in Vancouver-Granville in 2021, but left politics in 2023, writing a book excoriating Trudeau for his record on Indigenous reconciliation.
Reporters’ wish list
Ryan Reynolds. Canadian actor whose Deadpool character captures Canadian cool.
Ryan Gosling. Canadian actor whose portrayal of Ken depicted the Canadian nice-not-so-nice inferiority complex.
Sandra Oh. Canadian and American actor whose roles on Grey’s Anatomy and Killing Eve brought fame.
Christine Sinclair. Olympic medallist and Canadian women’s soccer champion
Masai Ujiri. President of the Toronto Raptors who brought the team to its 2019 NBA championship.
