With inflation below target, BoC expected to deliver supersized rate cut this week

Nathan Janzen, an assistant chief economist at RBC, said the latest consumer price index report reinforced his expectation for a supersized rate cut.

”(You) have an economy that’s probably performing worse than necessary to get inflation under control and still interest rates (are) at restrictive territory. So that makes it a pretty straightforward argument to continue cutting interest rates,” Janzen said, adding that the central bank needs to lower interest rates to a level that doesn’t hinder economic growth.

After the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cut last month, governor Tiff Macklem signalled that the central bank will be ready to cut rates more aggressively if inflation falls by too much.

He’s also said that the central bank now wants to see economic growth pick back up again.

The Bank of Canada has lowered its key interest rate three times so far, bringing it down to 4.25 per cent.

The sharp slowdown in inflation this year has come as somewhat of a surprise for economists who feared price growth might take longer to tame.

Now, the Bank of Canada is contending with the risk that interest rates may actually restrain economic growth by more than desired.

Although the Canadian economy has continued to grow modestly, real gross domestic product has shrunk on a per-capita basis for five consecutive quarters.

The labour market has also loosened considerably, with the unemployment rate in September sitting at 6.5 per cent — up a full percentage point from a year earlier.

The gloomy economic backdrop paired with plummeting inflation have many forecasters convinced that the Bank of Canada will deliver back-to-back jumbo interest rate cuts in both October and December, which would bring its policy rate down to 3.25 per cent.

The parliamentary budget officer projected in its recent economic and fiscal outlook that the central bank will continue cutting rates until its policy rate reaches 2.75 per cent in the second quarter of 2025.

Carl Gomez, chief economist at real estate data company CoStar, said real interest rates in Canada — which are adjusted for inflation — are much higher than in other countries, putting more downward pressure on the Canadian economy.

“What’s interesting is Canada’s real policy rate is still much higher than every other country, but we are dealing with a far weaker economy in Canada than the United States. So this just tells you another reason why the Bank of Canada is so far behind the curve,” Gomez said.

The U.S. annual inflation rate fell to 2.4 per cent in September while the Federal Reserve’s policy rate sits at 4.75 to five per cent.

The Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts were expected to stimulate activity in the housing market again, raising fears that inflation could rebound.

But Gomez said that while home listings have increased, demand in the housing market is still tepid.

“It’s turned into more of a buyer’s market, which is still pulling house prices down; not allowing them to continue to move up as they had been pre-pandemic,” Gomez said.

Janzen said that while lower interest rates help somewhat with affordability, home prices are still too expensive for many people.

Higher unemployment among younger people is likely weighing on housing demand as well, he said, given many of them would be prospective first-time homebuyers.

“Interest rates are falling, but labour markets are also softening at the same time, so we’re not expecting the same kind of a jump in housing market activity as you might normally expect if interest rates were falling when the unemployment rate was low,” Janzen said.

In addition to its interest rate announcement, the Bank of Canada will publish its quarterly monetary policy report on Wednesday, which will include new economic forecasts.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 20, 2024.