Canadians are continuing to turn away from travelling to America amid U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade war, according to new data showing plummeting demand for U.S.-bound flights.
OAG Aviation, a U.K.-based global travel data company, released findings this week showing “a sharp decline” in bookings and a more modest “downward trend” in airline capacity — or the number of seats — for flights to the U.S. from Canada.
The number of bookings made in March for flights to the U.S. between April and September have dropped by an average of 72 per cent compared with bookings made in March 2024 for travel between the same months, according to the OAG data.
Meanwhile, airlines operating between Canada and the U.S. appear to have also reduced their capacity for American-bound flights through October 2025, with the most significant cuts occurring in the peak summer months of July and August. OAG estimates that more than 320,000 seats have been removed between April and October when comparing the number of available seats on March 3 and March 24 this year.
Major Canadian airlines contacted by the Star for this story pushed back against OAG’s findings.
While Air Canada said in an emailed statement that it is “experiencing a softening in the transborder market,” the airline asserted the decline was “not by any means” as dramatic as OAG observed. Flair Airlines also hasn’t seen as steep of a drop in demand as indicated by the report, Eric Tanner, vice-president of commercial, told the Star.
For its part, Porter Airlines said it was seeing passenger numbers grow faster than capacity.
“Porter is the only carrier with consistent and significant capacity increases,” said Robyn van Teunenbroek, senior manager of communications and team engagement for the airline. Teunenbroek added there was a 42 per cent increase in capacity on Canada-U.S. routes year-over-year during 2025’s spring period.
John Grant, chief analyst at OAG, stressed that the company’s data was only preliminary, and that airlines might have “more timely information.” He also noted that OAG’s data came from a “major global distributor and booker of airline flights,” but said he could not share the name due to a commercial agreement.
Even if Canadian airlines aren’t experiencing the same level of drop in demand the OAG’s data suggests, there is evidence they are making changes to their operations in light of Canadian frustrations with the U.S., along with a weakened loonie.
Air Canada announced on a quarterly financial call in February it would cut flights to Florida, Las Vegas and Arizona by 10 per cent — which the airline confirmed on Friday, adding it was using smaller aircraft for these trips as well.
And although Flair remains “fully committed” to serving U.S. markets, Tanner noted the airline has cancelled its seasonal Toronto-Nashville route and ended some flights to other American airports early while boosting service to places like Mexico and Jamaica to match demand.
It is the latest sign that the U.S. tourism industry — which has long relied on Canadian travellers, and their money, for its success — has become collateral damage from Trump’s tariff threats and 51st state taunts. Canadians accounted for 11 per cent of total international inbound travel and spent $20.5 billion in 2024, according to the U.S. Travel Association.
“Canadians are choosing to spend their tourism dollars with more intention than ever,” Amra Durakovic, head of communications for Flight Centre Travel Group Canada, said Friday.
While Flight Centre isn’t currently seeing widespread cancellations to U.S. travel — the agency previously told the Star it was experiencing a 40 per cent drop in bookings and 20 per cent cancellation rate — Durakovic said it was clear Canadians were continuing to look to other destinations in Canada or internationally in Europe and Asia for travel.
Road trips to the U.S. appear to also be taking a hit, with the U.S. Customs and Border protection recording the number of travellers entering the States by car through the northern border dropping by roughly 500,000 in February compared with the year before.
The drop-off in visits and planned trips has tourism agencies across the U.S. worried. Representatives from a Palm Beach travel group were in Toronto last week on a trade mission, while members of the New York state tourism board were in Canada earlier in March for similar reasons.
