Canada’s merchandise trade surplus jumped to $2.7 billion in April, the second consecutive monthly surplus and the largest since the beginning of 2025, according to data released by Statistics Canada Monday.
The federal agency reported Monday that merchandise exports rose 1.6 per cent in April to a record $75.2 billion, while imports edged up 0.3 per cent. The result was a trade surplus of $2.7 billion, up from a revised $1.8 billion in March and the highest level in 15 months.
“It’s generally viewed as positive for the economy,” explained BMO senior economist Robert Kavcic. “Canada is selling more abroad than it is purchasing.”
Statistics Canada said the April surplus was the largest since January 2025.
Exports of energy products rose 9.7 per cent in April following a 23.4 per cent increase the previous month. StatCan said both increases were fuelled by higher prices, which continued to climb amid uncertainty caused by the conflict in Iran. Crude oil exports, which increased seven per cent, contributed the most to the monthly gain.
“The trade balance has improved largely because of higher resource prices,” said Kavcic. “Even if the volume of those shipments rises only modestly, the value of those shipments has jumped sharply because of higher global prices, for oil for example.”
Total exports rose 1.6 per cent in April to a record $75.2 billion, driven by a 9.7 per cent increase in energy product exports, which was partly offset by a 17.5 per cent decline in exports of metal and non-metallic mineral products.
Total imports rose 0.3 per cent in April to $72.4 billion, supported by a 16.9 per cent increase in imports of basic and industrial chemical, plastic and rubber products.
The increase in exports points to trade becoming a source of economic growth this spring after acting as a drag earlier in the year, Kavcic said.
Combined with encouraging GDP data for April, that could help calm fears of a recession after StatCan announced the country’s GDP had met the threshold for a technical recession in late May.
Fuel analyst Dan McTeague agreed that trade could continue to provide support for the economy in the months ahead if oil prices continue to remain high. Given that Canada exports roughly 4.5 million barrels of oil a day — about 90 per cent of it to the U.S. — McTeague said it would not be surprising to see similarly strong trade figures in May and June.
“Needless to say, the surplus will help cushion the fiscal impact the energy crisis is having on both personal and public finances across the country,” he said.
TD economist Marc Ercolao said with improving exports volumes in April, there could be a positive reversal in trade dynamics on Canada’s horizon.
“That said, with flows still heavily influenced by volatile components (notably oil, gold and autos), trade contributions are likely to remain choppy through the remainder of the year,” he continued.
Ercolao also pointed to the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) review deadline on July 1, which he says “looks unlikely as negotiations have yet to gain steam.”
If the deadline were to be missed, he noted CUSMA would remain in effect and shift into rolling annual reviews, which he warns could bring prolonged negotiations and ongoing trade uncertainty.
With files from The Canadian Press
