As Toronto’s mayoral race between incumbent Olivia Chow and her closest rival, Brad Bradford, heats up, both candidates have been posting campaign endorsements on social media.
Over the past few weeks, Bradford and Chow have tallied support from local politicians, community groups and unions, even sparking a ‘battle of the bands’ with celebrity endorsements: support from Geddy Lee of Rush and Blue Rodeo’s Jim Cuddy is divided between the two mayoral front-runners.
But, will endorsements actually matter come election day?
While determining if the endorsements will move the needle for voters is difficult, the relatively small number for both candidates jumped out to Myer Siemiatycki, a professor emeritus in the department of public policy and administration at Toronto Metropolitan University.
“It’s not a very long list for either of them, which maybe tells me that they don’t expect it to turn the tide of the election,” Siemiatycki said.
As of Friday, six MPs had endorsed Chow while seven MPs had thrown their weight behind Bradford. Both had the support of one MPP each, while Chow also has the stamp of approval from various unions.
Toronto has 24 MPs representing the city in federal parliament and 25 MPPs sitting at Queen’s Park.
Organizational, union support behind Chow
After sifting the local elected officials supporting Bradford and Chow, the list of remaining endorsements from community organizations and unions skews toward Chow.
“Interestingly, they reflect a wider base of support for Mayor Chow … Brad Bradford does not cite any stakeholders or economic or resident groups within the city, so that’s a bit of a surprise,” Siemiatycki said, characterizing the list of public endorsements for Chow as a more “grassroots, widely dispersed base.”
Chow has the backing of Toronto-area unions CUPE Local 79 and Local 416, which represent city workers, along with larger Ontario-wide unions and a union representing TTC workers.
In a campaign where Bradford, a second-term councillor, has made multiple public safety promises, such as hiring more police officers and having more police patrol transit, the warm words for Chow from the leader of the Toronto police union could be “the wild card.”
“You have the lead person representing Toronto police officers speaking very, very positively about Mayor Chow,” Siemiatycki said, adding that it could deflate some of Bradford’s attempted criticism of the mayor on public safety.
While holding off on an explicit endorsement, the police union posted that Chow is “the only mayoral candidate to engage and consult with the TPA (Toronto Police Association) through this election.”
The endorsement for Chow’s campaign from Flavio Volpe, head of the Canadian Automotive Parts Manufacturers’ Association, also stands out to Siemiatycki.
“It signals to me that there’s a major industry in this country that regards Mayor Chow as an effective promoter and champion of economic vitality in the city,” he said.
‘Heightened value’ in election without party affiliation
Past elections help the plausible argument that endorsements can make a difference, according to Siemiatycki, pointing to the 2020 U.S. presidential election between Joe Biden and Donald Trump against the backdrop of COVID-19 and nationwide Black Lives Matter protests.
“The scathing criticism of Donald Trump that came from the NBA, I’m thinking of its superstar players, its most visible and prominent coaches who very strongly spoke out,” gave voice to an already existing wave of anti-Trump sentiment, Siemiatycki said.
Toronto’s municipal election where candidates run without affiliation with political parties “should have the effect of heightening the value of endorsements,” Siemiatycki explained.
For voters who might typically vote along party colours, endorsements from prominent Torontonians and local groups can act as hand rails.
“One of those handles could be a list of endorsements of very prominent Torontonians, organizations, institutions coming out in support of a particular candidate … what’s striking is that’s not what is reflected,” Siemiatycki said.
“If anything, what stands out is they are pretty modest lists.”
