OTTAWA – Canada could lose 102,000 jobs if the Canada-U.S.-Mexico agreement on trade breaks down, a new report warns.
The report, prepared for the Canadian American Business Council by Oxford Economics, studied the potential economic consequences of CUSMA negotiations, including termination of the deal.
The report says the United States would lose 214,000 jobs in 2027 if CUSMA died.
The successful renegotiation of CUSMA, it says, would create 137,000 American jobs and 98,000 Canadian jobs.
The report says the provinces and states affected the most by the loss of CUSMA would include Ontario, Quebec, Manitoba, New Brunswick, Michigan, Indiana, Washington and Iowa.
A new round of 50 per cent American tariffs on a range of Canadian goods is set to take effect on Aug. 19 and, unlike most of U.S President Donald Trump’s other tariffs, these would have no exemptions for goods that comply with CUSMA.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Aug. 11, 2026.
