Donald Trump is counting on Canada having weak resolve — freaking out and turning on each other and crawling to him with fresh concessions, in the face of his latest menacing of our economy.
The next month will be about proving him wrong. And so far, we’re not off to a half-bad start.
Keeping calm is no small thing to ask of businesses and workers who stand to be devastatingly impacted by the 50 per cent tariffs Trump’s vowing to impose on a wide and rather weird array of products, from cement to makeup to hockey sticks. And you have to hope that, as we speak, federal and provincial governments are readying financial supports for them in case he makes good on that threat.
It might not be easy for the rest of us, either, even if the new tariffs would only apply to about 5 per cent of what we send to the U.S. To this point, we’ve taken some comfort in most of our exports being protected by the Canada-U.S.-Mexico agreement (CUSMA) that Trump himself negotiated during his first term. That’s now being called into question by his apparent willingness to test out a heretofore unused century-old provision.
But we’ve seen what happens when Canada (like any other country) makes the mistake of showing Trump any signs of weakness. Last year’s ill-advised dropping of Ottawa’s digital services tax, which was meant to smooth trade talks but just emboldened him to make further demands, tends to be held up as Exhibit A.
The last thing we can afford right now is to let him move the goalposts some more.
During the early stages of talks around changes to CUSMA that Trump is seeking, Canada’s imperative has been to get him to drop — or at least significantly reduce — the existing tariffs that he’s separately applied to our automotive, steel, aluminum and forestry industries. Getting that relief will be harder to achieve the more we hype up his threat to pile on more levies, and prematurely give him what he wants to avoid them.
And there could hardly be a worse moment to engage in the self-flagellation to which this country is sometimes prone. Nobody needs to hear right now from business lobby groups that Trump has a point about our dairy supply-management or financial regulations or whatever else he wants us to concede on. Or why we generally need to play nicer with the bigger, stronger neighbour that will inevitably remain our largest trading partner.
That doesn’t mean we need to deliberately turn up the temperature. Doug Ford, whose response on Tuesday was that we need to hit back hard because “we could dismantle the U.S. if we wanted to,” might want to take it down a notch.
But there was a degree of restraint, in the initial reaction from most corners on this side of the border, that hearteningly suggests lessons learned from our history with Trump so far.
Publicly, you could see it in Mark Carney’s assessment that provinces should only drop their bans on U.S. booze — one of the best cards that Canada holds, because it’s clearly gotten under the Americans’ skin — as part of a broader deal involving relief from the existing tariffs, not in response to the newest broadside. Saying that CUSMA talks were intensifying fit the bill for a reasonable response.
Privately, Carney’s government was counselling industry leaders to stay cool. And interviews with representatives of sectors that now find themselves under greater threat suggested they’re, for now, remaining optimistic that — as is often the way — Trump will back off his threat before the 30 days are over. “I’ve not heard anyone pull the panic button yet,” was how Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president Dennis Darby put it.
The premiers, coincidentally gathered in Charlottetown, seemed to avoid finger-pointing over their varying levels of retaliation against Trump, as had started to happen earlier in his term.
Even Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives released a statement that emphasized that Trump is to blame for this stress, and held back in criticizing Carney’s negotiating style.
Maintaining this degree of cohesion in the coming weeks may not be possible. But we have to try.
Carney’s government has been getting an unusual benefit of the doubt from the broader public — more than is healthy, when it comes to some spending decisions or other public policy.
The Prime Minister could do a better job of communicating to Canadians about his dealings with Trump, too. The yo-yoing between tough talk and flattery has made for some whiplash.
But Canada has a negotiating team, led by former Clerk of the Privy Council Janice Charette, that doesn’t seem easily rattled. And there are times when you have to trust the process, because failing to do so means it’s likelier to turn against you.
Day 1 didn’t give Trump too much reward for his bullying. The next 29 will test us more.
