Doug Ford gives his aging government a long summer to regroup

The extended legislative recess until late October comes as Ford marks eight years in office — and when an Abacus Data poll found 70 per cent of Ontarians believe it is time for a change in government from his Progressive Conservatives.

“No one can question my work ethic. I am jammed from six in the morning and don’t get home till midnight every single night,” a defensive premier told reporters Tuesday as the legislature rose for a five-month respite.

While Abacus’s latest tracking poll suggested Ford’s Tories are rebounding slightly after a tailspin due to his purchase and panicked sale of a $28.9-million jet that critics dubbed the “gravy plane,” the governing party has broader challenges beyond the Bombardier Challenger.

Hence a lengthy summer breather to take stock.

The pollster found seven in 10 Ontarians would like to see a change in government — with 51 per cent saying “definitely” and 19 per cent saying “it would be nice but it’s not that important.”

Just 11 per cent said “it would be nice to keep Doug Ford and the PCs in government but it’s not that important,” while 19 per cent said the Tories “should definitely be re-elected.” The next election is not expected until 2029.

Overall, Abacus had public support for the Tories at 41 per cent; for the Liberals, who elect a new leader Nov. 21, at 31 per cent; for Marit Stiles’s New Democrats at 17 per cent; and for Mike Schreiner’s Greens at five per cent. The firm surveyed 1,017 Ontarians May 14-20 using online panels based on the PureSpectrum platform. Opt-in polls cannot be assigned a margin of error — for comparison purposes, a random sample of this size would have one of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

But Abacus president David Coletto emphasized that “structurally, the environment remains far more difficult for the PCs than it was for much of the past two years.”

That’s due to ongoing concerns about the cost of living, U.S. President Donald Trump’s punishing trade war against Canada, and the general voter antipathy that tends to plague third-term governments of any political stripe.

To push back against any impression that malaise is setting in, Ford is hitting the road.

He plans to spend the summer travelling stateside at governors’ meetings, lobbying Americans in Washington, and attending the Calgary Stampede as well as the annual Council of the Federation conference in Charlottetown, P.E.I. next month.

“We’re going to get out there and we’re going to sell Ontario — I’m heading to Washington then I’m heading over to Utah then South Carolina then over to Alberta and then over to the COF meeting,” the premier said.

“We’re going full steam rather than sitting here and arguing with each other. We’re actually going to get out there and talk to the people and start bringing more jobs to Ontario,” he said at Queen’s Park.

Ford bristled when asked about more prosaic political concerns, like whether he’s worried other high-profile ministers will follow Treasury Board president Caroline Mulroney into retirement.

“From cabinet? No, I didn’t know there was any other resignations. We have the same cabinet outside of a wonderful Caroline Mulroney,” he said, amid rumours several other ministers are considering career changes, which would trigger a cabinet shuffle.

On Thursday, the premier was asked if would be making major changes to his executive council for the first time in two years.

“Well, stay tuned. Right now, I think all the ministers are doing a great job, their parliamentary assistants are fabulous. I’m blessed to have the best caucus I could ever remember in over 35 years of being in this business,” he told reporters.

“So, I’m blessed and let’s see what happens in the near future.”

Senior Tory sources, speaking confidentially in order to discuss internal deliberations, insist no significant shuffle is planned and Finance Minister Peter Bethlenfalvy, himself a former Treasury Board president, will do double duty in Mulroney’s absence.

There will be, however, byelections in the coming months to fill her York—Simcoe seat — a PC stronghold — as well as Scarborough Southwest, held since 2018 by former New Democrat Doly Begum, who is now the local Liberal MP.

As the Star revealed Wednesday, Ford’s bid to have Gary Crawford, a former local city councillor, carry the Tory banner in Scarborough Southwest fell through, so the party is now scrambling for a candidate. The NDP is fielding tenant advocate Fatima Shaban while the Liberal candidate is businessman Ahsanul Hafiz.

The premier will be hosting his annual Ford Fest picnic in Scarborough on June 19 with an eye toward to the byelection there.

While his fancy may be turning to electing new Tory MPPs, he has some lingering caucus friction that might be smoothed by an extended break from Queen’s Park.

Last month, a furious Ford fired caucus chair Will Bouma (Brantford—Brant) for daring to raise the Challenger jet fiasco when underscoring PC MPPs’ concerns about a new pension plan that could have drained thousands from their monthly pay.

In front of dozens of his colleagues at a closed-door Queen’s Park meeting, Bouma, who has declined to comment, scolded the premier. 

Soon after the MPP’s reprimand, he was relieved of his duties as caucus chair and replaced with Matthew Rae (Perth—Wellington).

The message, emphasized one witness, was “you don’t challenge the boss like that.”