CALGARY – Stephen Vandervalk half-jokes that there’s a reason more farmers aren’t seen pitching their businesses on “Dragon’s Den” and “Shark Tank.”
“They would laugh you out of the room,” said the fourth-generation southern Alberta wheat grower.
It’s an industry where investment decisions span generations, not fiscal quarters, and where owners are at the mercy of forces as fickle as weather and as volatile as war. Canadian farmers are working to get their crops off their fields against a particularly stormy backdrop this year, as conflict upends global supply chains and the U.S. administration throws a once rock-solid cross-border trading relationship into disarray.
And, in the West, the skies were of little help.
Weather
Rains came at the exact wrong time for many Prairie farmers. A wet spring delayed seeding in many spots. Rainy conditions returned with a vengeance in the last few weeks, smack dab in the middle of the harvest.
“It would have been a lot nicer to have that six weeks ago,” said Vandervalk, who is vice-president at the Wheat Growers Association. He said much of the summer was bone-dry.
Industry groups report that the harvest of various products is well behind the average timing of recent years. Depending on how long those crops remain on the fields, they could see a deterioration in quality.
“Farmers are fighting mud trying to get out on the fields,” said Rick White, head of the Canadian Canola Growers Association.
“The days are shorter, the sun is not as long in the sky and temperatures are cool, so when it does rain significantly, it takes a long time for it to dry out.”
Vandervalk said his wheat crop hasn’t been great. Nor has it been the worst he’s seen.
“But this also was by far, with no comparison ever in history, the most expensive crop that farmers have put in the ground,” he said.
“You get an average crop, you are losing money hand over fist. It’s a pretty scary thought when your average isn’t nearly good enough.”
Costs
The war in the Middle East has disrupted global crude oil shipments, hiking the cost of products derived from that commodity. Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy infrastructure have further crimped supplies.
The Canadian average retail price of diesel was more than $2.75 a litre late last week, according to Natural Resources Canada. That’s over 80 per cent higher than the price at this time last year, which was around $1.50.
“Higher diesel prices have arrived at the worst possible time, because harvest is one of the most fuel-intensive periods of the year,” said Bruce Burrows, executive director at Grain Growers of Canada.
He said he’d like to see the federal government offer a “targeted and temporary” per-litre rebate on fuel to help ease some of the pain.
“The reality is you either buy the fuel or you don’t,” said Keith Currie, an Ontario farmer who leads the Canadian Federation of Agriculture.
“And if you don’t buy it, you don’t have a crop.”
The Ukraine-Russia and Mideast conflicts have also disrupted supplies of fertilizer. Vandervalk said prices have become “absolutely astronomical.”
The high fuel price “hurts, but it’s not something that’s devastating,” Vandervalk said, “whereas fertilizer is definitely killer for us.”
Trade
Farm Credit Canada, a federal Crown corporation that provides financing and advisory services to agriculture businesses, surveys farmers monthly to gauge industry sentiment, said J.P. Gervais, executive vice-president.
The “concern level” spiked in the spring of 2025 when U.S. President Donald Trump announced “Liberation Day” tariffs at a universal 10 per cent rate, he said. That sentiment dropped and flatlined for well over a year, until it started ticking up again in its most recent poll.
“It’s trending up because the narrative is highly volatile and nobody knows really how that’s going to look going forward,” said Gervais.
Agricultural commodities and inputs have been largely exempt from the latest cross-border tariff tit-for-tat. Canada’s counter-tariffs included farm machinery parts imported from the United States, but industry groups are optimistic farmers can get some relief through the remission process, whereby tariffs can be refunded or waived in certain circumstances.
There’s another key trading relationship causing some worry.
China imposed steep tariffs on canola products and peas last year in retaliation for Canada’s levy on Chinese electric vehicles, and later imposed further canola tariffs linked to an anti-dumping investigation. China is Canada’s second-largest market for canola after the United States.
Ottawa announced an agreement with Beijing in March that saw the 100 per cent tariffs on canola meal and peas suspended until year-end. Anti-dumping tariffs on canola seed have been sharply reduced.
It was a welcome move, but farmers haven’t exhaled completely.
Greg Cherewyk, president of Pulses Canada, said importers might be reluctant to commit to purchases while the fate of those tariffs remains up in the air.
“They want absolute certainty that there will not be a 100 per cent duty applied on Jan. 1. So that means we’re in a very serious time frame here in terms of trying to find a solution.”
Transport
It’s a long way from Prairie fields to coastal waters, and farmers rely heavily on having smooth operations on railroads and at ports.
“Everything has to move very efficiently and very predictably. When you start to introduce uncertainty to that equation, then you get product sitting,” said Cherewyk.
Storage fees rack up the longer a product sits at a port, waiting to ship.
The industry groups flagged bottlenecks at the Port of Vancouver as a major source of stress. Burrows said the Second Narrows bridge heading into bulk export terminals on Vancouver’s north shore has been a particularly big headache.
“It’s a classic example of aged infrastructure. It’s broken down a couple of times fairly recently,” Burrows said. Much of the attention at the Canada Investment Summit last week focused on building new infrastructure, but Burrows urged industry and government to also make sure existing infrastructure is kept in good repair.
The agricultural trade associations say repeated labour stoppages on railways and at ports in recent years have also been a major issue.
“Our reputation has been drastically hurt in the last five years from all of that,” said Vandervalk.
Recent challenges aside, Gervais said farmers’ 2026 full-year revenues are on track to be higher than 2025. Last year’s crop was a good one, and those sales will filter through into this year’s bottom line. Commodity prices are also high, he said.
“The world needs more of what we produce. That’s an undeniable fact,” Gervais said.
“We’ve got a resilient farm population. We’re very confident about the future.”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 20, 2026.
