When Canada faces an El Niño climate pattern it can bring above-normal temperatures and a ‘super’ El Niño strengthening in the Pacific Ocean right now could have major impacts on the country in the coming months.
CityNews chief meteorologist Natasha Ramsahai confirmed the incoming El Niño pattern could be the strongest on record based on the latest National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecast.
“Since the spring, we’ve had such a rapid transition that the forecast models can’t even keep up,” she said.
Ramsahai said the biggest impact will be felt across western Canada and through the Prairies into northwestern Ontario, with warm and dry conditions throughout winter, heading into the spring and summer of 2027. She said it will likely mean little to no snow packs in many of the affected areas.
“That means a reduction in snow melt, a reduction in insulation, and an increase in wildfire and drought risk,” Ramsahai said.
“I think this is going to be the biggest impact that we’re going to be talking about nationally when it comes to El Niño and the strength of El Niño this winter.”
What is El Niño?
Ramsahai said El Niño is a cycle that usually alternates every two to seven years with La Niña (cooler-than-normal temperatures).
“When those trade winds are strong, [El Niño] blows the hottest of the water in the Pacific westward. When those winds relax, that hot water starts flooding back… and that hot water pool sits through the middle and eastern parts of the Pacific,” she said.
The temperature of that hot water, Ramsahai said, determines the strength of the El Niño episode. She also emphasized it can impact temperature and precipitation patterns globally over and above existing climate change-related impacts.
What’s fueling El Niño and what other effects could be felt in parts of Canada?
Ramsahai said northwestern Ontario, Quebec and most of the Maritimes could see cooler conditions this winter.
In southern Ontario, she said El Niño could mean an increased chance of freezing rain and flooding, a shorter winter with a compressed ski season, an extended shipping season due to reduced ice buildup on the Great Lakes, more potholes due to freeze-thaw cycles and potential negative impacts to maple syrup and ice wine production if it does not get cold enough. But she noted those potential risks are fueled by volatile conditions and there could be surprise changes.
Ramsahai said the NOAA forecast suggested there is a greater-than-90-per-cent chance that a “historic” event could last through March to May, when it typically peaks.
She said if the temperature is 2 C or more above average temperatures in the zone of concern in the Pacific Ocean, it leads to a ‘super’ designation. In August, the zone of concern was 1.89 to 2 C above average. Ramsahai said the current record is 2.4 C above average, but some models suggest it could be 3 or 4 C this coming winter.
Meteorologists also said as of mid-September, it appeared El Niño was fending off hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean.
Ramsahai noted in 2002 and 2013, the first major hurricanes of the season those years began on Sept. 11 — the latest starts since satellites began tracking hurricanes and weather in 1966. As of Sept. 16 this year, a major hurricane still hasn’t formed.
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