Mark Carney's trip to Europe will determine how 'European' Canada can become

The prime minister clearly liked the sound of it and the concept. It anchored his inaugural 2025 trip that dashed to Paris, London and Iqaluit to underscore Canada’s French, British and Indigenous historical roots days after he entered office.

Carney’s message then, as now, was: Canada is not America, and certainly not beholden to the mercurial U.S. President Donald Trump for its cultural or national identity, trade prospects, or sovereign decisions about how it defines or defends itself.

But as the prime minister hits the European circuit again Wednesday — with a whirlwind detour to the U.K. to meet its new prime minister — his critics and supporters believe it’s time to flesh out what Carney’s idea of deeper ties to Europe really looks like.

Is Canada to become an EU member or “associate member” — an as-yet non-existent designation — as the Wall Street Journal reported on Sunday?

Carney has been alternately definitive and coy about it. Last summer at NATO he said, “The short answer is no. That’s not the intent. That’s not the pathway we’re on.”

Last Thursday, he dodged a direct question about whether he wanted EU membership, quipping that he would offer only a “nonanswer.”

On Sunday, when the Journal reported, citing dozens of unnamed sources in Europe and Canada, that Carney is mounting an “audacious bid” to formalize a membership association with the EU, Carney quashed it. Strolling the red carpet at the Toronto International Film Festival, he said, “We’re not looking to become a member of the European Union. What we are looking — and will begin discussions for — [is] a unique alliance with the European Union. We share the same values, we have the same priorities and we have very complementary strengths.”

That’s similar to the message Geneviève Tuts, the EU’s ambassador to Canada, outlined in an interview two weeks ago with the Star’s Allan Woods. “What is going to happen is quite unique. By that, I mean there is no existing integration model that we could simply mirror,” she said. 

So just how “European” can Canada, a non-European country, be? 

Dion, now diplomat in residence at the Université de Montréal, doesn’t take ownership of that catchy phrase, but said in an interview there are clear limits.

EU membership is not on the table, said Dion, and he believes there’s no way Canada would even become, like Norway, a member of the European Economic Area because of “the transfer of sovereignty” implied.

He also cited the requirement to make payments to the European Union akin to equalization payments that already cause political fissures in Canada, where provinces like Alberta frequently complain they don’t get out as much as they pay in. “Can you imagine?” he said.

Canada is not Norway, he said. “Norway has access to the EU market, but must accept EU regulations without having a seat in Brussels. But for Norway, it makes sense because the EU is their big, big partner. For Canada, it’s 8 per cent of our trade.” At best, if Canada succeeds in its rapprochement with Europe “maybe it will be something like 16 per cent in 10 years from now.”

“Our big partner will remain the U.S.,” said Dion. “We need to have a normal relationship with a normal president in the U.S. but not put all our eggs in the same basket. Europe may help us to be less dependent on the U.S. but they cannot replace the U.S. We need to be realistic about that.”

Still, Dion stresses it is time for Ottawa, European Union member states, and the companies that seek to increase trade and defence ties to advance the many agreements already in place.

Those include the existing free trade deal which 10 European countries, including France and Italy, have not yet ratified, a security and defence partnership signed last year, and Canada’s participation in the rearm Europe defence procurement program known as SAFE.

“I want to see concrete commitments. It’s what we need,” said Dion, pointing to the need for increased trade, investments, contracts, labour mobility, and scientific co-operation — “full access to everything,” because Dion said Europe is “not immune to protectionism.”

Brian Clow, former deputy chief of staff and senior adviser on Canada-U.S. relations in the Trudeau government, emphasized the symbolic and practical importance of getting all 27 EU member states to ratify the Canada-European Union Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA).

Negotiations began under Stephen Harper’s Conservative government, and the free trade deal was reached under Justin Trudeau, but is still only provisionally applied. Nevertheless, it boosted Canada-EU trade which in 2025 was worth $178 billion.

“It’s good to see Mark Carney going to Europe at a moment when the United States is actively harming our economy and threatening our sovereignty,” said Clow. “There’s real opportunity here on security, on trade, on building the kind of partnerships that don’t leave us so exposed to one unpredictable neighbour.”

“Still, if Europe wants to prove it’s serious about a stronger relationship with Canada, there’s an obvious place to start: ratify CETA. France, where Carney is set to speak, is one of the countries that still hasn’t ratified the deal, nearly a decade after the deal was signed. It’s time to get it done.”

Carleton University professor Meredith Lilly, a former foreign and international trade policy adviser to Harper, agrees, saying it’s “symbolically problematic” that CETA remains unratified. Nevertheless, she said, Carney’s trip may not produce any immediate change, and part of its value is to show Canada does have options. “The U.S. will remain our number one partner, but by demonstrating that we have other customers, that we have other partnerships, it is good on its own face, but it also actually increases our leverage with the Americans.”

Sen. Peter Boehm, a former diplomat, disagreed that it’s important to get all countries to ratify the CETA because it is effectively applied anyway. He shrugged off questions about Canada’s relationship status with the EU. Whether it’s associate membership or some other label, “it’s semantics,” but he said in an interview it’s clear the intent to deepen ties has to “go beyond agreements.”

Between Carney’s invitation to attend the keynote address on the state of the European Union by EU President Ursula von der Leyen on Wednesday, Carney’s own speech to the European Parliament on Thursday, and the Canada-EU summit in Montreal at the end of October, Boehm said, “they will have something to put in the window that shows this is how we’re going to work together and we’re gonna work more closely on strategic supply chains, on energy, on AI, on critical minerals, and of course, the defence and defence procurement issue.”

In online posts, Conservatives like leader Pierre Poilievre railed against a loss of sovereignty he suggested Carney’s cosying up to Europe means: “We will NEVER be the 51st U.S. state. And we will NEVER be the 28th EU state.”

However, Abacus Data president David Coletto released findings Monday that suggested Canadians are open to closer ties, with 80 per cent of Canadians in favour of deeper strategic co-operation on foreign policy, defence, and economic priorities, up six points since February. And 81 per cent support closer Canada-EU integration that could make it easier to trade, travel, work, study, and co-operate on security. 

“This is not just about economics,” wrote Coletto in his analysis. “A majority, 56 per cent, say Canada now has more in common with the countries of the EU than with the United States when it comes to our values, way of life, and outlook on the world. Only 16 per cent say we have more in common with the U.S.”

“And nearly half of Canadians now say they would support Canada actually becoming a member state of the European Union.”

So a lot of eyes will be on the Carney speech on Thursday. It’s not the first time a Canadian prime minister has addressed the European Parliament. Justin Trudeau was notably given a standing ovation in March 2022 when he spoke there about threats to global democracy but was booed by far-right, populist and anti-vaccine members of the chamber.

Right now, however, it seems the European Parliament is prepping a warmer welcome.

Its president, Roberta Metsola, who invited Carney to the speech by Von der Leyen, announced Monday that the European Parliament would set up an “antenna office” in Ottawa (where an EU embassy, answerable to the executive branch, is already located) to facilitate parliamentary exchanges across the Atlantic “with a regional remit reaching as far as the Arctic. Europe and Canada: old friends, still writing the next page together.”