A new poll finds the Liberals enjoy their largest lead over the Conservatives since Mark Carney became leader with a majority of Canadians intending to cast a ballot for them if an election were held today.
The Abacus Data survey shows the Liberals with a 14 point lead, up four points from the last poll conducted at the end of August. It marks the largest lead for the Liberals measured by the polling firm dating back to May 2017.
If an election were held today, 47 per cent of committed voters would vote Liberal compared to 33 per cent for the Conservatives, eight per cent for the NDP, seven per cent for the Block Quebecois, and three per cent for the Green Party.
Across the country, support for the Liberals remains above 50 per cent in B.C., Ontario, and in Atlantic Canada while in Quebec the Liberals are favoured by 48 per cent. The Conservatives are favoured in Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba.
The survey was conducted during a critical period in the Canada-U.S. trade dispute, with the federal government’s counter-tariffs on almost $25 billion worth of U.S. imports taking effect on Sept. 8. Since the last survey, the Liberals also swept three federal byelections on August 31 in Ontario, B.C. and Quebec.
“This poll reinforces just how much the political environment has shifted in favour of Mark Carney and the Liberals since the trade negotiations with the United States collapsed,” said Abacus Data CEO David Coletto.
“Canadians have rallied behind the Prime Minister’s decision to walk away from the agreement the United States was offering. They largely support standing firm. They are deeply distrustful of the person Canada is negotiating with. And the government has spent the past several weeks defining the dispute in terms of sovereignty, independence, resilience, and refusing to accept a bad deal.
“All of that gives the Prime Minister political strength today. But it may also make the next stage much harder.”
Trump top concern among Canadians
Donald Trump is once again the main target of Canadians as 46 per cent identify the U.S. administration as their top concern, with only the rising cost of living a bigger issue. The economy is listed as third followed by healthcare, and housing affordability and accessibility rounding out the top five.
The survey finds 68 per cent believe the Liberals are the best to deal with the Trump administration.
It’s no surprise that only 10 per cent of Canadians hold a positive impression of Trump with 82 per cent have a negative one.
As the ongoing and escalating tariff war with the United States continues, 45 per cent of those asked believe Canada is headed in the right direction while 41 per cent feel otherwise. Two weeks ago, a similar survey found that sentiment tied at 43 per cent.
Fifty-nine percent approve of the job Mark Carney’s government is doing, up three points from the last survey, with 57 per cent approving of how the government is handling the relationship with the United States.
Carney’s personal rating continues to increase with 54 per cent having a positive impression of him, giving him a net impression of +27. In contrast, Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre’s net impression sits at -13.
The survey was conducted with 1,479 Canadian adults from September 4 to 9, 2026. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.54 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
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