OTTAWA — Canada’s progress against greenhouse gas emissions is stalling, according to a new analysis that concludes the country’s climate target for 2030 is so far out of reach that it likely won’t even be met by 2050 — the year Prime Minister Mark Carney promises to hit “net zero” emissions.
Researchers at the Canadian Climate Institute were set to release their analysis Friday morning, concluding the country is “far off track for its near-term climate goals,” and that there is a “cavernous gap” between projected future emissions and the ambition to hit net-zero by 2050.
The researchers blamed “weaker” climate policies that will fail to offset the increased emissions from new development, following a series of decisions by Carney’s Liberal government to cancel and water down national measures designed to cut greenhouse gas output that drives climate change.
“There’s no physical way at this point that Canada can meet its 2030 goal,” said Rick Smith, president of the Canadian Climate Institute.
“Now,” he added, “unless we get a move on, 2050 is not in the cards.”
Under the international Paris Agreement, which is designed to hold countries accountable to slashing national emissions and prevent the damaging extremes of climate change, Canada pledged to cut annual greenhouse gas output to 40 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030, and 45 per cent below 2005 levels by 2035.
Friday’s analysis, which used data projections with the firm Navius Research, referred to a previous report that concluded the climate plan created under the Trudeau government would have put Canada “within reach” of its 2030 target if it had been entirely implemented. Instead, the new analysis shows emissions on track to be significantly higher in 2030, while remaining 460 megatonnes above “net zero” by 2050.
Since taking office last year, however, Carney’s government has stopped emphasizing a commitment to those goals. It has also weakened or abandoned several major climate policies instituted under his predecessor, Justin Trudeau. The government cancelled the consumer carbon price, and scrapped a planned regulatory “cap” on emissions from the heavy-polluting oil and gas sector. The government also weakened the future industrial carbon price that is meant to spur emissions reductions in large industries like oil production and cement-making, lowering the planned overall price increases from $170 per tonne in 2030 to at least $110 per tonne by 2040.
Smith said it was the changes to the industrial carbon price that most clearly put Canadian emissions reduction in doubt, since promised improvements to the industrial carbon price in oil-rich Alberta have so far failed to materialize.
At the same time, the government is promoting further development of fossil fuel industries, including by backing Alberta’s desire to build a major new oil pipeline to the coast of British Columbia. The government is also pushing oil companies to build long-discussed facilities to capture and store industrial emissions from the extraction of fossil fuel, but the new analysis estimates the new pipeline could add “roughly” 20 megatonnes of annual emissions, outstripping the forecast reductions of up to 16 megatonnes per year from the carbon-capture plan.
Yet Smith said it was still possible the federal government could improve the new projection if it follows through on plans to improve how the industrial carbon price is working in emissions-heavy Alberta. The Carney Liberals have also vowed to expand electricity grids and power generation to replace fossil fuels used for transportation and the heating of buildings with lower-emitting energy.
These promises aren’t yet included in projections of future emissions, since the government hasn’t released specific details, Smith said, adding that “the sooner the government starts putting the legs under these commitments, the better.”
Meanwhile, Ottawa still faces pressure to further roll back climate policies as Canada grapples with the ongoing trade war with the United States, and as Carney vows to make Canada the strongest G7 economy, fast-track major projects like ports, pipelines and mines, and double non-U.S. exports within a decade. Ontario Premier Doug Ford, for instance, has called on the Carney government to entirely eliminate the industrial carbon price, as well as federal emissions standards for cars.
Smith argued Canada should still take climate action seriously, since much of the world outside the U.S. still wants to shift to non-emitting industries and forms of transport, which he predicted will mean such countries will have an interest in trading with those that take similar steps.
“It’s precisely because we need to diversify trade with other countries that we need to accelerate decarbonization,” he said.
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