As the two leading candidates to be mayor fanned out for the last weekend of campaigning, they described contrasting perspectives of Toronto: one where a new dawn is breaking and one where a city is broken.
With the rising sun painting the eastern skyline in golden light, incumbent Mayor Olivia Chow stood in the Port Lands and spoke of a city that cares for its neighbours, where residents of homeless encampments now live in transitional housing, thousands of units of affordable housing are being built and fare-capped transit will soon ease traffic.
“Our city has changed a lot. But in all the important ways, I have not. I am still the kid from St. James Town,” she said. “And that’s behind my vision for Toronto’s future … A more caring, more affordable and safer city where everyone belongs.”
Across town at Humber Bay Shores in Etobicoke, the waterfront skyscrapers were cast in a different light by leading challenger Brad Bradford, who commiserated with people who feel the city has become less affordable and less functional.
“We’re stuck in traffic. We’re stuck waiting for the bus that doesn’t show up. We’re stuck feeling less safe. We’re stuck on wait-lists. We’re stuck paying more and getting less,” he said. “If you wanna change the city, you have to change the mayor.”
Six months ago, Chow held a commanding 18-point lead over Bradford, a two-term city councillor whom she soundly defeated during the mayoral byelection in 2023. Since then, Bradford has closed the gap and, according to multiple polls, sits in a statistical tie with Chow in the final stretch before election day on Monday.
But huge numbers of early voters could blunt the impact of that late momentum. More than 222,000 people voted between Oct. 6 and 11 — a record number for the city, and an increase of more than 70 per cent over the number of early voters in the last municipal election.
While there is no consensus on which candidate benefits more from early voting, in 2023, Chow built up such a commanding lead with advance voters that she was able to win even though she didn’t get the most votes on election day.
Inflation, which has driven up the cost of groceries, gas and other household basics, has put electorates in a bad mood, and incumbents have been paying the price across Canada. Earlier this month, Quebec Premier Christine Fréchette’s CAQ went from a majority to not winning a single seat. Last week, Vancouver mayor Ken Sim was soundly defeated after a single term in office. On Saturday, B.C. Premier David Eby lost his bid for re-election only days before Ontarians were set to vote for new mayors on Monday.
98 per cent of parks are tent-free
In an interview with the Star, Chow acknowledged the growing difficulties in Toronto, but cautioned against quick fixes. She said her solutions may take time, but they provide lasting results.
On homelessness, one strategy is to clear encampments with riot police, as was done under previous mayor John Tory, but the tents popped back up shortly afterward. By contrast, Chow’s approach employed hundreds of outreach workers who spent time with the people in the tents, getting them into transitional housing and treatment programs. It took longer than a police operation, but now 98 per cent of parks are tent-free.
“We’ve been kicking the can down the road for so long — moving people from parks to libraries, and then we just end up putting security guards in libraries and then security guards into parks. You spend more money having security guards everywhere, when you could have just housed them,” she said.
On transit, previous mayors promised new lines, but never delivered, she said, pointing to Tory’s vaunted SmartTrack, which has run over budget, been pared back and still isn’t open. Chow’s approach has been to freeze fares and introduce a cap that means no one will pay for more than 47 fares per month. If re-elected, she has proposed bringing in a 10-fare-per-week maximum.
On housing, Chow boasted of her administration’s ability to build modular housing in months, rather than years, and to provide funding to community organizations to purchase existing buildings that are transformed into affordable housing much more quickly than building new.
Pointing to Dunn House, a transitional housing project built on the grounds of the University Health Network, she said she’s met residents who spent years on the street battling addiction and are now clean and sober, cooking in common kitchens and sharing meals, growing vegetables and pickling their extra cucumbers.
“They are people that have had a rough life and now found community,” she said. “It is a work in progress, and it has in fact housed more people in shelters. We have put 4,000 people into permanent homes that used to be homeless.”
Bradford highlighted crime, homelessness, inflation
At a rally on Sunday morning, Bradford said Chow’s solutions haven’t worked and that the city isn’t living up to its potential, describing Toronto as “a city that relies on 4.1 million visits to the food bank every year.”
“A city that has the worst gridlock in North America, where residents lose 100 hours a year in traffic jams. A city where folks turn their deadbolts at the end of the night, and they lie up waiting, concerned that somebody might break in … A city where parents feel like they’re competing in the Hunger Games to register their kids for swimming lessons.”
“We’re not trying to put a man on the moon, we’re just trying to make this city a little bit safer, a little easier to get around, and a little more affordable.”
Bradford has proposed hiring 1,000 new police officers and supports ripping out bike lanes on Bloor. He wants to freeze taxes while keeping a 1.5 per cent annual increase for a building fund. He plans to spin off Toronto Water into a publicly owned but independent utility that can borrow to build rather than use tax dollars to pay for new infrastructure, which he says will save the average homeowner $300 on their water bill annually. He also plans to cut the municipal land transfer tax, which will cost the city some $300 million per year, and pay for it by finding efficiencies in a line-by-line audit of the city budget.
Observers have pointed out that Bradford’s platform highlights crime, homelessness and inflation, all things that have actually come down over the past three years while Chow has been mayor. But statistics don’t always reflect people’s lived experiences, and commentators have also criticized Chow for downplaying widespread feelings of insecurity on transit.
“I can’t overemphasize the desire for change. People are thirsty for it. We feel the momentum. We feel that we’re on the precipice of doing something very big, special and historic here,” said Bradford.
At the Greek Oxi Day Parade on the Danforth Sunday afternoon, elected officials from all levels of government were present, but the assembled crowd clapped and cheered for Bradford.
“Bravo Brad, our boy! Next mayor! Time for a change,” one man cried out.
In the end, many of Bradford and Chow’s proposals aren’t all that different, and the election may come down to vibes, with homeowners and suburbanites favouring Bradford‘s aggressive push on traffic and taxes, and renters and downtowners preferring Chow‘s emphasis on helping those most in need.
Polls are open from 10 a.m. to 8 p.m. on Monday.
