Poll finds Mayor Chow with double-digit lead over nearest challenger

Two weeks after registration opened for this fall’s municipal elections, a new survey finds a candidate who hasn’t officially committed to running is leading Toronto’s mayoral choice.

The Liaison Strategies poll finds Mayor Olivia Chow has a 13-point advantage over Coun. Brad Bradford, who is officially in the race as of May 1.

The random sampling of 1,000 Torontonians from May 10 and 11 finds Chow with 50 per cent support, while Bradford is the choice of 37 per cent. Thirteen per cent say they would vote for another candidate. Aside from Bradford, there are 11 other candidates who have registered to run for mayor as of May 14.

In the 2023 municipal vote, Chow received more than 269,000 votes to defeat Ana Bailao by almost five percentage points. Bradford garnered less than 10,000 votes.

“Mayor Chow continues to hold a strong lead, and this survey finds a third of Torontonians are either unfamiliar with or have no firm opinion of challenger Brad Bradford,” said David Valentin, principal at Liaison Strategies.

“The mayor has a positive approval rating (+13), and despite being much less known than the mayor, Bradford has a positive favourability rating (+10). That being said, Chow leads by double digits, though it is still very early.”

A spokesperson for Brad Bradford noted the poll shows momentum for their campaign, which is at a disadvantage when it comes to the incumbent mayor.

“Mayor Chow’s lead is built on an advantage no other candidate has. She has not registered as a candidate. She hasn’t even decided if she’s running. She is not subject to the same campaign rules Brad follows. And she is campaigning through the Mayor’s office on the taxpayers’ dime, while Progress Toronto runs a shadow campaign on her behalf,” Isha Chaudhuri said in a statement.

The poll also finds that traffic congestion is among the top priorities among Torontonians, with almost nine in 10 saying it is a serious problem, while 71 per cent say it has gotten worse in the past year.

“Traffic is usually talked about as a car issue, but the poll suggests Torontonians see it as a performance issue,” said Valentin. “They want the basics managed better: fewer lane closures, faster construction, better signal timing, and transit that gives people a real alternative to driving.”