Poll: Ontario Liberals hold lead as Ford’s approval plunges to record low amid expense scandal

A new poll shows the Ontario Liberals maintaining a narrow lead over the Progressive Conservatives, while Premier Doug Ford’s personal approval has dropped a sharp 24 per cent as his government faces mounting scrutiny over MPP hotel expenses.

Liaison Strategies’ Ontario Political Tracker, conducted July 20 and July 21, finds the Liberals at 38 per cent among decided and leaning voters, ahead of the PCs at 33 per cent and the NDP at 24 per cent. Among all voters, including undecided respondents, the Liberals sit at 33 per cent, the PCs at 29 per cent, and the NDP at 21 per cent.

Ford’s approval numbers are the standout finding: 72 per cent disapprove of his performance as premier. Liaison principal David Valentin noted that the trend is unmistakable.

“Ford’s personal numbers are the bigger problem… Just 24 per cent approve of the job he is doing as Premier. That is the lowest approval and highest disapproval we have measured for Ford in this tracker.”

The poll arrives as the Ford government deals with backlash over thousands of dollars in hotel claims submitted by PC MPPs — including members who live within commuting distance of Queen’s Park. Ford has apologized and said the expenses will be repaid.

Valentin says the scandal may not be the cause of the movement, but it reinforces a damaging political narrative.

“When an incumbent premier is already at 24 per cent approval, stories about MPPs billing taxpayers for Toronto hotel rooms are exactly the kind of thing that reinforces a bad frame.”

Direction of the province: Grim numbers for government

Only 26 per cent of respondents believe Ontario is headed in the right direction, while 71 per cent say it is on the wrong track.

Regional breakdown

The race remains fractured across Ontario:

• Liberals lead in Toronto at 46 per cent
• Liberals and PCs are tied at 40 per cent in the 905
• PCs lead in Eastern Ontario at 42 per cent
• NDP strongest in Northern and South Central Ontario

Data centres: A divisive issue

The poll also tested attitudes toward large data‑centre development in Ontario — an increasingly prominent policy debate.

Key findings include:

• 44 per cent support allowing more large data centres; 42 per cent oppose
• 73 per cent believe data centres would increase household electricity bills
• 81 per cent say data‑centre companies should pay for any required electricity infrastructure
• 60 per cent say they would be more likely to support a data centre if it kept Canadian data stored in Canada
• The top condition for support: no increase to household electricity bills (33 per cent)

Valentin says affordability concerns dominate both the data‑centre debate and the expense scandal.

“If voters think a project will raise their hydro bill, they want the company — not the household — to pay. That same fairness instinct applies to the expense scandal.”

Liaison surveyed 1,000 Ontarians using IVR technology, with results weighted to 2021 Census targets.