As the midnight deadline looms for a trade deal with the U.S. before Canada is hit with 50 per cent tariffs on $20 billion worth of goods, here’s a look at the possible winners and losers in a new deal.
Winners
Mid- and small-business owners
The obvious big winners could be mid- to small-business owners targeted by U.S. President Donald Trump’s latest threat of 50 per cent tariffs, says international trade lawyer John Boscariol.
A deal would avoid the 50 per cent hit on everything from hockey sticks and dairy products to electronics and T-shirts.
Some small-business owners have told the Star they fear the additional tariffs could threaten their very survival.
Should a deal go through, says Boscariol, there will be a lot of owners “breathing a sigh of relief.”
Winners, sort of …
Canadian automakers
The Star reported that the U.S. has agreed to reduce the current 25 per cent tariff on Canadian-made automobiles and trucks to 15 per cent, with an exemption for U.S.-made content and parts. The effective tariff on each vehicle could potentially be around seven or eight per cent.
It is certainly better than the original tariff, but industry experts say a 15 per cent levy could still crush Canada’s auto industry, which is heavily reliant on exports to the U.S.
Profit margins on some vehicles could be squeezed to razor-thin levels and discourage foreign investment in Canadian plants as a gateway to the U.S. market.
Steel and aluminum
Sources familiar with the trade talks have told the Star that U.S. tariffs on Canadian steel would be cut from 50 to 25 per cent for shipments within an agreed quota, while volumes above that threshold would remain subject to the 50 per cent rate. Aluminum tariffs would also be reduced from 50 to 25 per cent.
Again, it may appear as a win, but it’s unclear how much it would help the struggling industries.
The United Steelworkers has also said that no deal is better than a bad deal, and urged Ottawa not to make concessions before an acceptable agreement is reached.
U.S. alcohol producers
On Tuesday, Carney asked the provinces to restock American alcohol on their shelves — a demand the U.S. has strongly pushed for in exchange for lower tariffs.
Nova Scotia Premier Tim Houston said he would follow the prime minister’s direction, but it would be up to Nova Scotians and other Canadians to decide whether they actually buy American booze.
Losers
Doug Ford
Ontario Premier Doug Ford has been put in a tricky situation — and so far, he has remained tight-lipped.
Just a week ago Ford told reporters that Kentucky bourbon and California wine would return to LCBO shelves only if Canada secures “a fair deal” for the steel and auto sectors, among others.
But with Trump indicating that lifting the alcohol ban is necessary to finalize a deal, Ford now faces a difficult choice over whether to wade into the fight.
Canadian softwood lumber industry
Ford may not be alone in his reluctance to restock American alcohol. British Columbia Premier David Eby, meanwhile, has yet to see much movement on reducing tariffs on Canada’s forestry industry.
The Star reported that no agreement has emerged on tariffs on Canadian softwood lumber, with one source saying the U.S. wants to set the issue aside.
The dairy industry
The Trump administration and U.S. dairy industry have accused Canada’s quota system of shutting American dairy products out of Canadian stores.
Boscariol said he expects Canada to tweak the quotas to expand the access of U.S. dairy producers to the Canadian retail market.
“As a result of that,” Boscariol said, “Canadian dairy producers could lose some market share.”
The Online News Act
The Star’s Justin Ling has reported through sources that Ottawa has quietly told publishers to prepare for the death of the Online News Act — the law requiring Google and Meta to compensate Canadian news outlets.
Canada bowed to U.S. pressure in 2025 to abandon its Digital Services Tax, a three per cent levy on the revenues of major internet companies.
Can Canada get assurances against further tariffs?
Boscariol said that, beyond resolving the tariffs threatening existing industries, another key element of the deal should be assurances that no other sectors will be hit with tariffs in the future.
While the government may not be able to secure such a commitment in this deal, it is crucial for the broader Canadian economy and for investors, he said.
“We want to see some indication that can give confidence to investors here in Canada that they can go ahead and invest and expand their operations,” he said, “knowing that they’re not going to be subject to arbitrary tariffs from the Trump administration.”
