MONTRÉAL – A major aluminum association in Canada says the impact of U.S. tariffs on the industry has been less dire than expected.
Jean Simard, president and CEO of the Aluminum Association of Canada, says the industry is operating at 95 per cent capacity.
“No slowdown, no layoffs,” Simard said in an interview with The Canadian Press on Thursday about the effect of 50 per cent U.S. tariffs on aluminum.
“It’s less painful than we anticipated,” Simard said. “The problem, fundamentally, is the lack of visibility into the future. We’re in a world of total uncertainty.”
Simard, whose association represents Alcoa, Alouette, and Rio Tinto, said there is concern about the outcome of talks to renew the continent’s free-trade agreement.
On June 4, 2025, the Trump administration raised tariffs on aluminum and steel imports from 25 per cent to 50 per cent. The impact was felt most acutely during the first few months after the new rate took effect.
Canadian producers initially took a hit, as U.S. customers refused to absorb the price increase caused by the tariff.
“In Canada, we lost a lot of money. We lost nearly US$600 million over the next seven to eight weeks because we had to keep delivering metal that had been contracted, but the market wouldn’t pay the full price,” Simard said.
But this situation has been resolved, he added. The price of the metal, meanwhile, has continued to rise. It could keep climbing through August because of the crisis in Iran: aluminum smelters in the Middle East have had to shut down production lines, and shipments destined for Europe and the United States are stuck in the Strait of Hormuz, Simard said.
“The market is tightening. We’re moving from a price shock to a supply shock because there will be a shortage of metal. Not in all markets, but in certain market segments,” he noted.
Simard said the situation in Iran will constitute “a new factor that will be weighed in the balance during upcoming discussions” with Washington in favour of Canadian aluminum.
It confirms for our neighbours to the south that “the one and only secure source of aluminum supply remains Canada,” said Simard, who is a member of the advisory committee on Canada-U.S. economic relations, established by Prime Minister Mark Carney.
“Metal shipped from the Middle East takes 60 days to arrive. If it leaves from India, it takes 60 to 70 days. From Canada, it takes three to five days. We don’t face the national security risks found in the Middle East,” Simard said.
In fact, local mills are once again beginning to supply the U.S. market by redirecting inventory intended for Europe to the United States. “We’re not losing money by doing this. On the contrary, we’re making money right now because the price is very high,” he said.
According to the organization, a tonne of aluminum now costs US$2,000 more in the United States than in Europe.
By imposing sector-specific tariffs on steel and aluminum, the White House aims to strengthen U.S. industries operating in this sector. But Canada’s aluminum association says that despite the tariffs, primary aluminum production has increased only marginally in the United States, while consumption has fallen significantly compared to pre-tariff expectations.
“There is no increase in capacity. (The U.S.) announced a 50,000-ton project,” Simard said. “We produce 50,000 tons in a week in Canada.”
Quebec’s statistical institute and an industry association for the metal manufacturing and metal processing sector released a report on Thursday on the impacts of the trade war on aluminum, copper, and steel.
They reported a 36 per cent decline in Quebec’s metallurgical export volumes between February 2025 and February 2026, and a 3.6 per cent decline in employment for the industry as a whole in 2025, primarily in smelters. The aluminum sector, however, saw a five per cent increase in employment.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published June 5, 2026.
