The world’s maple syrup supply may soon be at the mercy of Mother Nature, as Quebec’s strategic reserve runs dry amid soaring demand.
Every last drop in the strategic reserve, set up to keep prices steady and cushion against lean harvest years, is expected to sell out by the end of February 2027, said Simon Doré-Ouellet, the deputy general manager at Quebec Maple Syrup Producers, the organization overseeing the stockpile.
The industry could struggle to serve some markets if unfavourable weather cut supplies short, Doré-Ouellet added, though he stressed that market supply is secure for the coming year.
“It is clear, however, that the strategic reserve will need to be replenished over the next few years,” he said. “And a good production year in 2027 would be welcome even though we have little control over that.”
A combination of factors, including stockpiling by American buyers wary of potential tariffs on maple syrup and the sweetener’s growing global popularity over the past three decades, has driven the reserve’s depletion, said Guillaume Moreau, a Université Laval silviculture professor.
“The maple syrup industry is growing very, very fast,” said Moreau, the research Chair in Maple Syrup Production and Sugar Bush Management. “The demand is rising quicker than what we are able to produce.”
“The empty reserve is partly a consequence of Trump tariffs,” he said. “People were afraid that the price would rise significantly.”
In 2025, the Canadian maple syrup industry accounted for more than 75 per cent of global production, with 90 per cent of Canada’s output originating in Quebec, according to Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada.
Few industries can match the sector’s export growth, averaging eight per cent annually over the past decade, Doré-Ouellet said.
Quebec’s liquid gold is finding new fans around the world, from health-conscious consumers looking for alternatives to refined sugar to first-time buyers in markets such as Australia. A weaker Canadian dollar has only sweetened the deal for foreign buyers, he explained.
Moreau said, the maple sugaring season from about February to April depends heavily on climate, making it “almost impossible” for producers to yield a consistent output year after year.
The strategic reserve, which can hold 133 million pounds, or about 218,000 barrels, across three warehouses in Quebec, was meant to smooth out those wild swings, he said. But with the stockpile nearing depletion, the sector now heads to greater uncertainty, Moreau added.
Expanding maple syrup production takes time and comes with its share of challenges. Much of the potential for expansion lies on Crown land, where maple syrup producers must compete with the forestry industry and other users for access to resources, said Moreau.
Balancing the needs of different industries while ensuring the sustainable management of maple forests makes it difficult to ramp up production quickly, he said.
“The government needs to support and to address all these questions if we want to make sure we are able to respond to the rising demand and to maintain this increasing industry,” he said.
Yohan Dallaire Boily, a spokesperson for Quebec’s Ministry of Agriculture, said that growing demand for maple syrup is “good news,” but even with record harvests between 2024 and 2026, it still outpaces supply.
“The Government of Quebec is, of course, closely monitoring the status of the global strategic maple syrup reserve, as well as issues related to market supply,” he wrote. “It is important to point out, however, that the current situation is partly the result of exports to the U.S. market being brought forward.”
Doré-Ouellet said Quebec’s maple syrup industry has expanded its production capacity by 50 per cent over the past six years, adding more than 21 million new taps where sap can be collected from maple trees.
But the rapid expansion has also put financial pressure on growers, who need better financial support, along with faster approval of permits to develop sugar bushes on public land.
“At the end of the day, passing up the opportunity to support a sector like ours as it grows means missing out on a great opportunity to enrich our local communities and to generate taxation revenues,” he said.
