OTTAWA – Falling gas prices in June are expected to pull the annual inflation rate back below three per cent when Statistics Canada reports fresh price data on Monday.
A Reuters poll of economists expects inflation fell to 2.9 per cent in June from a recent high of 3.2 per cent in May, according to LSEG Data & Analytics.
Economist Benjamin Reitzes from Bank of Montreal says a 10 per cent drop in pump prices last month puts his inflation forecast right in line with the consensus.
He says it’s too soon to say whether inflation has peaked because gas prices are on the rise again in July and threaten to push the headline rate higher.
Global oil prices were falling last month on the prospect of peace between the United States and Iran, but renewed hostilities over the critical Strait of Hormuz are pushing the cost of gasoline higher again.
The Bank of Canada held its benchmark interest rate steady for a sixth consecutive time earlier this week but warned the ongoing Middle East conflict means the inflation forecast is still highly uncertain.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published July 17, 2026.
