TSX rises nearly 150 points as oil prices fall, U.S. markets post mixed results

TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index rose on Monday, as U.S. markets posted mixed results and oil prices fell.

Michael Currie, senior investment adviser at TD Wealth, said the U.S.-Iran negotiations continued to be a focus for the market, which is a big driver of oil prices.

The August crude oil contract was down US$1.99 at US$73.86 per barrel

“What we’re seeing is (a) generally positive feeling that it’s going to be settled soon, so oil prices have dropped pretty good, they’re down under US$75 now so it’s been a pretty sharp drop from the peak,” he said.

Talks took place over the weekend between the two countries. U.S. Vice President JD Vance said they created a “good foundation for a successful final deal.”

On financial markets, the S&P/TSX composite index was up 144.84 points at 35,002.18. In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 148.01 points at 51,712.71. The S&P 500 index was down 27.79 points at 7,472.79, while the Nasdaq composite was down 351.33 points at 26,166.60.

An end to the war in the Middle East could clear the Strait of Hormuz for oil tankers and allow for the undisputed resumption of deliveries from the Persian Gulf. Iran’s military had said Saturday that it closed the Strait of Hormuz again, though U.S. Central Command has disputed that.

The price for a barrel of Brent crude oil fell 3.2 per cent to US$77.52, closer to its roughly US$70 price from before the war.

The lower oil prices, though, did not pull down Treasury yields in the bond market. Yields have been climbing because of speculation the U.S. Federal Reserve may hike interest rates this year to keep a lid on inflation, which has been accelerating because of expensive oil caused by the Iran war.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury climbed to 4.50 per cent from 4.46 per cent late Thursday and from just 3.97 per cent before the war.

Traders are betting on a nearly 90 per cent chance the Fed will raise its federal funds rate at least once by the end of the year, with a small minority calling for four increases. That’s up from the 57 per cent chance seen just a week ago, according to data from CME Group.

In the Canadian stock market, the utilities and basic materials sectors led the overall index higher.

The August gold contract was down US$43.20 at US$4,202.70 an ounce.

Investors also digested inflation figures for May, which showed price pressures from the war in Iran started to crop up outside the gas pumps. Statistics Canada said Monday that the annual rate of inflation jumped to 3.2 per cent in May, up from 2.8 per cent in April and notching the highest headline inflation rate since December 2023.

Most economists weighing in on Monday saw little cause for panic in the consumer price data, with oil prices already receding and the Bank of Canada unlikely to move from the sidelines any time soon.

However, Currie said the inflation figure is the latest in a series of economic data he would describe as “not positive,” while the Canadian stock market continues to move higher.

He said that while there have been long-standing debates about the relationship between the economy and stock market, there has been a lengthy period of “divergence between the two.”