Summer in the GTA is looking to be to potentially wetter and cooler than average for the season.
CityNews Chief Meteorologist Natasha Ramsahai has released her outlook for the upcoming summer. These forecasts do not determine what happens day-to-day but show a projected three-month average pattern.
To start, El Niño out of the Pacific Ocean typically impacts the fall and winter seasons, but this year, it’s going to be a super El Niño and stronger, it could affect the summer across Canada.
“The difference between an El Niño and a super El Niño is how much above average those water temperatures are going to get, and we are experiencing and seeing a rapid transition to super El Niño, meaning those water temperatures will be at least two degrees above average,” shared Ramsahai. “This year, we are forecasting possibly three and maybe even four degrees above average, and a potentially historic event with global impacts on weather.”
El Niño is expected to impact the position of the polar jet stream which is forecast to come down across the Great Lakes. Moisture tends to ride along the jet stream and typically divides what areas stay cooler than average or warmer than average.
“I’m not saying we’re not going to get warm days here across Ontario. We’re seeing a stretch of 30s here this week and next week across Toronto, but what it means is cooler than average and more “interruptions” reducing the chances for very long heat waves,” said Ramsahai.
Ramsahai said the GTA is expected to come in at or slightly below seasonal. There could be some heat domes, with five to eight days of heat waves, but it will be less likely in southern Ontario, Quebec and the Maritime provinces, with a higher likelihood for western Canada.
As for moisture, the Great Lakes will likely walk away wetter than average over the three months, and as well as out to Atlantic Canada.
However, towards B.C. and Alberta, dry conditions are expected this summer which would not be good as that area looks ahead to wildfire season.
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