When the dust cleared Monday night from Toronto’s mayoral election, the results surprised many people.
Rather than the near-dead heat envisioned by opinion polls — with a narrative that Mayor Olivia Chow’s lacklustre re-election campaign had squandered its lead to the more energetic Brad Bradford — Chow had scored a thumping victory.
Poll-by-poll voting results released Thursday by the City of Toronto help explain how and where Chow, a former NDP MP and proud progressive, beat Bradford, the Beaches—East York city councillor who ran from the political centre-right and lost by 13 points.
Where Chow won, and who put her over the top
Chow won 54.2 per cent of the vote, winning 19 of Toronto’s 25 wards. She did best, in order of vote percentage, in Toronto Centre, Toronto—Danforth, Davenport, Parkdale—High Park and Spadina—Fort York.
Crucially, she won all six Scarborough wards and owes the area a debt of gratitude, again, for helping make her mayor.
Chow won a bigger share of the vote this election, against one prominent challenger, than in 2023, when she took 37.2 per cent of the vote against multiple rivals. However, rather than conquering new parts of Toronto, she was re-elected largely by building on her past successes
Chow was most successful in neighbourhoods where many people bike, walk or take transit to work. Neighbourhoods with more renters leaned Chow, but the link is much stronger for neighbourhoods where people don’t drive to work.
Chow made her biggest gains in Scarborough—Guildwood, Bradford’s home turf of Beaches—East York and Humber River—Black Creek.
She made her smallest gains in York Centre, Scarborough North, Eglinton—Lawrence and Willowdale. Chow’s share fell in an estimated six of about 1,200 polling areas, all small areas near Bathurst Street.
Where Bradford did well, and where he fell short
Bradford won six of 25 wards, all in Etobicoke and North York. They are, from biggest margin to smallest: York Centre, Eglinton—Lawrence, Etobicoke Centre, Willowdale, Don Valley West and Etobicoke—Lakeshore.
Although his home turf is downtown-adjacent, he campaigned heavily in Etobicoke and North York and made campaign pledges that appealed to voters in those communities.
Neighbourhoods where Bradford did best on election day: Bathurst Manor, Bridle Path-Sunnybrook-York Mills and Bedford Park-Nortown. Across Toronto, Bradford’s popularity rose with an area’s preponderance of detached homes.
Bradford won 60 of 282 single-building polling areas (condo or apartment towers), including ones in Humber Bay Shores, Etobicoke City Centre, Westminster-Branson and the Bathurst corridor. Chow, however, dominated the tower vote except in North York, where it split evenly, and in Etobicoke, where it was close.
Bradford’s strength in some suburbs could not make up for Scarborough, where he got only 39.9 per cent of the vote to Chow’s 53.4 per cent. Even Scarborough’s detached-house neighbourhoods went clearly Chow, unlike those in Etobicoke and North York. Chow’s Scarborough domination was a continuation from the 2023 byelection.
Where turnout went up, where it did not and how that shaped the result
Citywide voter turnout surged from 38.4 per cent in the 2023 byelection to 47.2 per cent. The increase was across all 25 wards. The biggest increases were in Etobicoke North, Eglinton—Lawrence and York Centre. The smallest increases were in Don Valley North, Don Valley West and University—Rosedale.
Parkdale—High Park had the highest turnout while Humber River—Black Creek had the lowest.
The boost in turnout did not, on its own, help Chow. If voter participation had stayed the same as in 2023, she would have won by about the same margin. If anything, turnout rose slightly more in Bradford-leaning wards.
What did help Chow: her vote share went up in every ward, rich and poor. Chow’s vote total almost doubled, from 269,000 last election, to 532,000.
South Etobicoke: a changing district
Ward 3 Etobicoke—Lakeshore was narrowly won by Bradford with 49.3 per cent compared to Chow’s 47.1 per cent. However, Chow was much more popular than in 2023 when she got only 29.4 per cent of the vote.
Between 2016 and 2021, the number of high-rise homes in the ward grew 20 per cent, twice the city’s rate.
Chow’s support was most concentrated in waterfront neighbourhoods, including Mimico, New Toronto and Long Branch. She also won the towers near Islington and Kipling stations, 54 to 41 per cent for Bradford.
Bradford won Etobicoke—Lakeshore only with very strong support from residents of prosperous single-family neighbourhoods including Kingsway South, Alderwood and Stonegate-Queensway.
