Canadian travellers with plans to visit Europe this summer might have to put their vacation plans on hold as experts warn of flight cancellations amid an impending fuel shortage on the continent.
The warning comes after the head of the International Energy Agency (IEA) said Thursday Europe has “maybe six weeks or so” of jet fuel remaining, with supply disruptions linked to the ongoing war between the United States and Iran. Early signs of strain are already emerging, with airlines adjusting routes and airports restricting flights, raising concerns about broader disruptions during the summer travel season.
“If there’s a shortage, the only alternative is to increase prices or just cut back on the number of flights,” said Roger McKnight, chief petroleum strategist at energy consultancy En-Pro.
McKnight said the pressure on Europe’s fuel supply is already building, tied to disruptions in shipments through the Strait of Hormuz that typically feed key supply hubs in northwestern Europe. Much of the replacement supply is expected to come from the United States, but McKnight said demand is high and competition is driving up prices, including in Canada.
Jet fuel is part of the same category as diesel, McKnight added, and shortages affect both. With planes requiring tens of thousands of litres per flight, airlines are left with limited options.
The IEA noted Europe is particularly vulnerable because 75 per cent of its supply of jet fuel is imported from the Middle East, it noted in an oil market report published Thursday.
“The loss of Middle East jet fuel exports has thrown a proverbial wrench into the inner workings of the aviation fuel markets,” the report said, adding that the region is now turning to international markets to replace the lost supply and the impact is expected to be concentrated in the second quarter of 2026.
“Getting from Canada to Europe is not going to be a problem,” explained former Air Canada executive and aviation lecturer at McGill University John Gradek. “The problem might arise when you’re returning from Europe. You may be leaving from an airport that may have restrictions because they’re rationing fuel.”
Gradek said some European countries have already begun implementing fuel restrictions, starting with Italy, and that other countries could follow in the coming weeks as supplies tighten.
“The six-week number that was given by the IEA really was running Europe dry,” Gradek said. “There will be areas in Western Europe that may run out earlier, in the next three to four weeks.”
Martin Firestone, a travel insurance broker, said he is hearing concerns from clients about both rising costs and the possibility of disruptions.
“The big question out there these days is cancellation and interruption,” he said, referring to the potential for flights to be cancelled or rescheduled due to fuel shortages.
Firestone said travellers are also facing higher prices, with fuel surcharges expected to increase significantly.
“We’re talking hundreds and hundreds of dollars,” he said.
Airlines in Canada have begun responding to higher fuel costs, even as they say supply remains stable domestically.
Air Canada announced it will suspend several routes in the coming months, citing a sharp increase in jet fuel prices, which the airline said have doubled since late February. Flights from Toronto and Montreal to New York’s John F. Kennedy International Airport will be paused starting June 1 and are expected to resume in late October. The airline will continue service to nearby LaGuardia Airport and Newark Liberty International Airport.
Additional suspensions include routes between Toronto and Yellowknife at the end of August, Fort McMurray and Vancouver in late May, and Toronto and Salt Lake City on June 30, with that route not expected to return until 2027. A planned route between Montreal and Guadalajara has also been cancelled before launch.
Air Canada said the suspended routes amount to about one per cent of its planned capacity. The airline added that affected passengers will be contacted with alternate travel options.
WestJet said it has not made changes due to fuel availability, but has adjusted some routes, consolidated flights and added a temporary $60 surcharge on certain bookings due to rising fuel prices. The airline reduced capacity by about one per cent in April, three per cent in May and 5.5 per cent in June, primarily affecting domestic routes.
Air Transat and Porter Airlines said they have not reduced or cancelled flights due to fuel constraints, but are “monitoring the global fuel situation.”
Firestone added that flight schedules could be consolidated if fuel availability becomes more limited, which could affect travellers with fixed plans.
“If they don’t get to that destination on that day, you can go on and on about what the domino effect will be,” he said, pointing to non-refundable bookings such as cruises or accommodations.
Firestone said travel insurance may help offset some financial losses, but added that travellers should confirm whether policies cover disruptions linked to war or fuel shortages.
Gradek said the situation remains uncertain, with fuel shipments from other regions expected to take several weeks to arrive.
“It’s a very fluid situation,” he said. “The crystal ball is pretty clouded today.”
