Five months after stepping down as Ontario Liberal leader, Bonnie Crombie is reportedly ready to run for her previous job as mayor of Mississauga — a move that could lead to one of the most unpredictable mayoral races in the GTA.
Crombie, who left in the middle of her third term as Mississauga’s mayor in 2024 to take on Doug Ford, resigned in January following an election that swung solidly Conservative and left her without a seat at Queen’s Park.
The prospect of Crombie running to be Mississauga’s mayor prompted Ford to say earlier this year he’d “send an army” to stop it, throwing his support behind current mayor Carolyn Parrish.
Queen’s Park insider website Policorner reported Wednesday that Crombie has collected the needed signatures and is expected to register her candidacy as early as next week.
Crombie, however, would not confirm her intentions to the Star.
“I care deeply about Mississauga and the people of Mississauga. The residents deserve strong, experienced and accountable leadership. I’m listening closely to people and will have more to say soon,” she said.
How Crombie might change the Mississauga race
If Crombie enters the race, she would do so with the advantage of name recognition similar to an incumbent, but she would also have to win back the voters she left behind. Her candidacy would also change the mayoral campaign into a fierce battle between two high-profile rivals, potentially opening up an unexpected pathway to victory for lesser-known candidates such as current councillors Alvin Tedjo and Dipika Damerla.
“Broadly speaking the race becomes very competitive and you could see someone actually become mayor with a much lower vote share,” said David Valentin, a principal at polling firm Liaison Strategies. “Usually we would expect a 45 per cent, 50 per cent to become mayor. Maybe you could win this with 35 or 30 per cent.”
Crombie won her 2022 mayoral election with 78 per cent of the popular vote, but narrowly failed to win a seat in the legislature in the riding of Mississauga-Cooksville.
In the 2024 byelection, Parrish was elected with 31 per cent of the vote, while Tedjo received 25 per cent and Damerla 19 per cent.
“Things could go a number of different ways,” said Zachary Spicer, an associate professor at York University specializing in local government.
Voters could look at the Crombie and Parrish and say “one is our past, one is our present and look at the two councillors and say one of these two is our future,” he said.
“I don’t think name recognition will be enough to take you over the hump here. You’re going to have to really articulate a solid campaign … platform.”
Crombie’s provincial loss may not matter much in Mississauga where she is well-established — and voters tend to distinguish between provincial and municipal politics, Spicer said.
While Mississauga may not have voted Liberal in the last provincial election, it may not have been personal — they might have considered Ford best to deal with the U.S. tariff issues in that moment, he said.
Crombie is a “formidable candidate,” but “I don’t think this is a coronation,” said Bakir Alazawi, chief strategy officer at political strategy firm Gestalt Communications. “She will have to think about how to win back the trust of voters since she left.”
Alazawi said Crombie will have to persuade voters that being mayor is her priority and not a “political convenience.”
He is less convinced Crombie’s entry into the race would be good for Tedjo or Damerla, who could lose supporters as sides are picked.
Mississauga candidates respond to possible run
In a brief statement Wednesday, Parrish, who registered to run on the first day nominations opened, declined to comment on what Crombie’s involvement could mean.
“Until she officially registers with the Elections Office, I am not interested in participating in a flurry of publicity. I am fully busy running this great city,” said Parrish. “Happy to comment when and if she does.”
Tedjo’s campaign manager Ryan Vopni said Mississauga “should not be treated as Bonnie Crombie’s backup plan,” and it was time for new leadership in the city.
Damerla, in an interview, said she didn’t give much thought to Crombie in making her decision to run for mayor, and that she, like Mississauga, is “looking forward.”
“I think people have had an opportunity and have not delivered results,” Damerla said.
Key issues in the mayoral race include property taxes, housing, crime and the cost of policing.
Crombie’s former Liberal leadership rival Nate Erskine-Smith is also considering a run at municipal politics. The Liberal MP in Beaches—East York could take a run at the Toronto council seat left open by mayoral hopeful Coun. Brad Bradford.
